Rural transport – Valuing the mobility of older people

This paper describes a series of focus groups that were undertaken in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland to examine the challenges faced by older people in rural Ireland when trying to make trips. The paper outlines transport policy in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and describes the activity patterns of older trip makers and the modes they use. It also discusses some of the contrasts between challenges faced by older men and older women. Both older men and older women experience a shrinking in activity spaces and activity participation when older. Older women are less likely to drive and to own a car and so are seriously impacted by loss of a spouse in terms of their unmet travel needs. However, older men also experience difficulties: the alternatives that are available (such as community transport schemes) provide trips and services that are more attractive to women. In addition, the car dependent lifestyles of men throughout their adult lives seems to make them less prepared for life without a car than older women.     

季节性冻土区隧道温度场分析与预测

为预防季节性冻土区隧道因防寒保温措施设置不足引发的冻害,研究季节性冻土区吐库二线中天山隧道温度场变化规律及其防寒保温参数。基于围岩温度场现场测试研究,利用ANSYS有限元软件,同时考虑水文地质条件、混凝土衬砌水化热、大气温度和地温随时间变化等影响因素,预测、比较隧道施加保温层和未施加保温层的冻融循环圈。总结出设置保温边沟和设置厚度≥5cm、导热系数≤0.03W/(m•K)的保温层是必要和合理的。     

Attitudes of Hong Kong residents to cars and public transport: Some policy implications

Hong Kong currently has low levels of car ownership and use due to a combination of good public transport, high population densities and high private transport costs. However, levels are rising, contributing to congestion and environmental problems. A major response by the government is to seek to increase rail's share of public transport journeys from its current level of 33% to 45% by 2016. After reviewing the transport situation in Hong Kong, the paper discusses the appropriateness of these targets as well as questioning whether they are achievable. The results of a questionnaire survey of 595 residents of Hong Kong, designed to elicit people's attitudes to cars and public transport, are analysed. It is concluded that unless the government does more to curb car ownership and use, rail targets will have little chance of being achieved.     

Characteristics of operating mode distributions of light duty vehicles by road type,average speed,and driver type for estimating on-road emissions: Case study of Beijing

Abstract

Researchers have collected extensive vehicle activity data in Beijing using GPS and attempted to develop a comprehensive database of facility- and speed-specific operating mode (OpMode) distributions of various vehicle types for estimating on-road vehicle emissions. This study developed the specific OpMode distributions of light duty vehicles (LDVs) for both restricted access and unrestricted access road types at various average speeds for characteristic analysis. (1) Strong patterns are found in the variations in OpMode distributions with the increase in the average speed: the time fraction of Decelerating/Braking remains less than 7%. The fraction of Idling decreases dramatically from 95% to 0%, while the fraction of Cruising/Accelerating increases from 2% to 94%. The fraction of Coasting increases to 28% and then decreases. (2) The time fractions for restricted access and unrestricted access are significantly different at the same average speeds, especially in Operating Modes #0, #1, #11, #12, #13, #14, #21, and #22, possibly causing an error of 20% in the emissions estimations. (3) Taxis show different OpMode distributions than those for private cars in the operating modes of Decelerating/Braking, Idling, and high-VSP modes, especially at low average speeds. The differences are derived from the more skillful driving behaviors of taxi drivers and may cause an estimation error of over 10%. Thus, the activities of taxis and private cars should be modeled separately for on-road emissions estimations.     

Unraveling the relationship between trip chaining and mode choice: evidence from a multi-week travel diary

Abstract

Trip chaining (or tours) and mode choice are two critical factors influencing a variety of patterns of urban travel demand. This paper investigates the hierarchical relationship between these two sets of decisions including the influences of socio-demographic characteristics on them. It uses a 6-week travel diary collected in Thurgau, Switzerland, in 2003. The structural equation modeling technique is applied to identify the hierarchical relationship. Hierarchy and temporal consistency of the relationship is investigated separately for work versus non-work tours. It becomes clear that for work tours in weekdays, trip-chaining and mode choice decisions are simultaneous and remain consistent across the weeks. For non-work tours in weekdays, mode choice decisions precede trip-chaining decisions. However, for non-work tours in weekends, trip-chaining decisions precede mode choice decisions. A number of socioeconomic characteristics also play major roles in influencing the relationships. Results of the investigation challenge the traditional approach of modeling mode choice separately from activity-scheduling decisions.     

Analysis of within-household effects and between-household differences in maintenance activity allocation

This paper investigates the allocation of household individuals to out-of-home maintenance activities using the rich activity-travel diary data from the San Francisco Bay Area. Two inter-related decisions are considered in this context: (i) whether the given activity episode is performed individually (solo) or jointly, and (ii) the person who participates in the activity, if it is a solo activity. To account for the conditional nature of the solo activity person selection, a nested mixed logit modeling framework is proposed and implemented to jointly analyze person allocation for all maintenance activities performed by a household on a given day. The model is used to investigate within-household effects and between-household differences. The proposed model relaxes some important restrictions in person allocation models by accounting for various sources of correlations and relaxing the assumption of constant variance across households. The proposed model is used to analyze the differences in person allocation between different types of households. The results indicate that life-cycle and household role, income, gender, employment status, and several types of constraints (activities including cost, time-availability, vehicle-availability, coordination constraints, and child-care obligations) affect person allocation decisions in the context of maintenance activities. The empirical results indicate the presence of various sources of correlations across persons, over activities, and within-household that are significant. In addition, the data also provides evidence that the unobserved variances in person selection utilities are not constant across households. A better understanding of these within-household interactions and between-household differences may be used in activity-based simulation models and to develop more effective and focused demand management measures.     

Generating complete all-day activity plans with genetic algorithms

Activity-based demand generation contructs complete all-day activity plans for each member of a population, and derives transportation demand from the fact that consecutive activities at different locations need to be connected by travel. Besides many other advantages, activity-based demand generation also fits well into the paradigm of multi-agent simulation, where each traveler is kept as an individual throughout the whole modeling process. In this paper, we present a new approach to the problem, which uses genetic algorithms (GA). Our GA keeps, for each member of the population, several instances of possible all-day activity plans in memory. Those plans are modified by mutation and crossover, while bad instances are eventually discarded. Any GA needs a fitness function to evaluate the performance of each instance. For all-day activity plans, it makes sense to use a utility function to obtain such a fitness. In consequence, a significant part of the paper is spent discussing such a utility function. In addition, the paper shows the performance of the algorithm to a few selected problems, including very busy and rather non-busy days.     

The role of anticipated time pressure in activity scheduling

In the present article we focus on the cost or disutility of engaging in activities arising from the time pressure people frequently experience when they have committed themselves to perform too many activities in a limited amount of time. Specifically, we propose that anticipated time pressure increases the likelihood of two types of planning, one short-term and the other long-term encompassing different strategies for eliminating or deferring activities. In addition, we discuss several behaviorally realistic such strategies. It is assumed that strategies differ depending on whether an activity satisfies physiological needs, is performed because of institutional requirements or social obligations, or is performed because of psychological or social motives. Strategies are also assumed to differ depending on the degree to which planning is feasible. Computer simulations of available activity data are presented to illustrate consequences of the different strategies on time pressure and activity agendas.     

乳腺癌中端粒酶活性与细胞凋亡的研究

目的　探讨端粒酶活性及细胞凋亡与乳腺癌生物学行为的关系。方法　分别采用端粒序列重复扩增法(TRAP法 )和末端脱氧核苷酸转移酶介导缺口末端标记 (TUNEL)法对 6 8例乳腺癌标本进行端粒酶活性和细胞凋亡的检测 ,并结合临床资料进行分析。结果　 6 8例乳腺癌标本端粒酶活性阳性率为 88.2 % (6 0 / 6 8) ,细胞凋亡指数为 (5 6 .7± 15 .3) % ;端粒酶活性强度及细胞凋亡指数与患者的年龄无关 (P >0 .0 5 ) ,与肿瘤的大小、分级、分期、腋淋巴结转移数、激素受体状况有关 (P <0 .0 1) ,即端粒酶活性越高和 (或 )细胞凋亡越少 ,则肿瘤分化程度越低 ,提示预后越差。端粒酶活性强度与细胞凋亡指数呈明显的负相关 (r=- 0 .6 7,P <0 .0 1)。结论　乳腺癌端粒酶活性及细胞凋亡与肿瘤大小、分级、分期、淋巴结转移数和激素受体状况有关 ,端粒酶活性及细胞凋亡的检测有助于乳腺癌的临床分析 ,并有望成为预后的观察指标